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October 18, 2021
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Ensemble forecasting of invasion risk for four alien springtail (Collembola) species in Antarctica

Publicated to:POLAR BIOLOGY. 44 (11): 2151-2164 - 2021-11-01 44(11), DOI: 10.1007/s00300-021-02949-7

Authors: Vega GC; Pertierra LR; Benayas J; Olalla-Tárraga MÁ

Affiliations

Univ Autonoma Madrid, Dept Ecol, Calle Darwin 2, Madrid 28049, Spain - Author
Univ Rey Juan Carlos, Dept Biol & Geol Fis & Quim Inorgan, Calle Tulipan S-N, Madrid 28933, Spain - Author
Universidad Autónoma de Madrid - Author
Universidad Rey Juan Carlos - Author

Abstract

Biological invasions are one of the most important threats to Antarctic biodiversity. Springtails (Collembola) make up most of the diversity in soil arthropod communities in Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems. However, the potential range expansion of already established alien springtails and their consequent impacts on Antarctic ecosystems remains largely unknown. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are a useful tool to identify areas potentially suitable for the geographical spread of alien species that are as yet unoccupied. In Antarctica, however, the application of SDMs is relatively less developed and initially received greater attention in marine rather than terrestrial environments. Here, we implement an ensemble forecasting approach and compute eight modelling algorithms to better understand the geographic distributions and potential range dynamics of four reportedly established alien springtail species (Hypogastrura viatica, Folsomia candida, Mesaphorura macrochaeta and Proisotoma minuta) on the Antarctic Peninsula. Our models identify several ice-free areas across the South Shetland Islands which offer highly suitable environmental conditions for establishment. Thus, biosecurity provisions ought to be reinforced in those sites more vulnerable to invasions. Model predictions of our ensemble SDM approach would benefit from additional field sampling effort across the introduced range and could be complemented with mechanistic models that critically need experimental physiological data to define the fundamental climatic niche of each species.

Keywords

acclimationantarcticabiotic interactionsclimate-changecollembolaconservation biogeographydispersalecosystemshypogastrura-viaticaphenotypic plasticityspecies distribution modelterrestrialAlien speciesAntarcticaBiological invasionsCollembolaSpecies distribution model

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal POLAR BIOLOGY due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency Scopus (SJR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2021, it was in position , thus managing to position itself as a Q1 (Primer Cuartil), in the category Agricultural and Biological Sciences (Miscellaneous).

From a relative perspective, and based on the normalized impact indicator calculated from World Citations from Scopus Elsevier, it yields a value for the Field-Weighted Citation Impact from the Scopus agency: 1.74, which indicates that, compared to works in the same discipline and in the same year of publication, it ranks as a work cited above average. (source consulted: ESI Nov 14, 2024)

This information is reinforced by other indicators of the same type, which, although dynamic over time and dependent on the set of average global citations at the time of their calculation, consistently position the work at some point among the top 50% most cited in its field:

  • Field Citation Ratio (FCR) from Dimensions: 2.14 (source consulted: Dimensions Aug 2025)

Specifically, and according to different indexing agencies, this work has accumulated citations as of 2025-08-03, the following number of citations:

  • WoS: 6
  • Scopus: 8

Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2025-08-03:

  • The use, from an academic perspective evidenced by the Altmetric agency indicator referring to aggregations made by the personal bibliographic manager Mendeley, gives us a total of: 17.
  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 18 (PlumX).

With a more dissemination-oriented intent and targeting more general audiences, we can observe other more global scores such as:

  • The Total Score from Altmetric: 5.35.
  • The number of mentions on the social network X (formerly Twitter): 10 (Altmetric).